- Hello again, this is Dr Daniel Pesut to talk about planetary health, futures thinking, and foresight leadership related to the social determinants of health. In this module, I build on the ideas shared by Dr Potter. She noted planetary health is a discipline, a paradigm and a movement. She also noted the need for a shift in values to support planetary health initiatives. One value that it's essential is attention to foresight and futures thinking. The specific objectives for part one of this module are to define the concepts of foresight, to inform the development of innovations and action regarding planetary and social determinants of health. Describe types of foresight leadership styles to use when developing data to action, collective impact initiatives. Describe futures thinking strategies to support planetary health as a discipline, a paradigm, and a movement and explore references and resources to advance knowledge, understanding, and application of futures thinking to planetary health initiatives. Some of the learning activities for this module include watching a video that provides an introduction to futures thinking, appreciating the work of the Millennium Project and other organizations in regard to global health challenges. Studying the recommendations from the report, a stitch in time, developed by the Royal Society for the arts and learning how one country addressed the environmental community and help impact across scales, sectors insights because they used futures thinking and foresight as they considered the upstream and downstream effects of resource development and use. Recall our data to action on our glass model from Module 2 in course 1. There are many data points available related to planetary health. As Dr Potter noted earlier in previous modules, there is a need to re-imagine the future to protect the health of people and the planet. She noted the importance of systems thinking and cross-sector collaboration to achieve desired futures. Dr Potter also expressed hope given the work of many organizations devoted to planetary health challenges. By now you are familiar with the work of the World Health Organization, the Millennium Project, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the Planetary Health Alliance, and in Vivo Planetary Health. Each of these organizations has developed programs that go beyond climate change and challenge us to think about the future of planetary health. Appreciating these challenges requires futures thinking and foresight rather than being future blind. Dr Frederick Hudson coined the term future blindness as the result of several factors. Developing foresight and futures thinking is one anecdote and remedy to future blindness. Dr. Hudson, notice people become future blind when they get lost and trapped in yesterday's decisions, choices, and consequences. As a result, they become risk-averse. People also often feel betrayed by expectations when they realize they have to negotiate the aspirations and expectations of youth with the realities and experience of life and finally, future blindness can also occur because social systems once perceived as protective are weakening and destabilizing. Dr Hudson also observed people become future blind if they're overwhelmed with information and decisions and bewildered by change, complexities and discontinuity in their lives. He suggested these factors lead people to develop a discourse of regret rather than one of hope. In order to move from a discourse of regret to hope, we need to value foresight and futures thinking. Here are a few definitions of the term foresight. The ability to see or plan for what will happen in the future. The ability or action of imagining or anticipating what might happen in the future, care and providing for the future or looking forward, thoughtful regard or provision for the future, prudent forethought. Each of these definitions has some common characteristics. To develop foresight people must value long-term thinking and understand the past, present, and in the context of the desired future. They must believe they have agency and can influence future events. People must also have the ability to engage in critical questioning of established truths and see possibilities of change. People must be able to see the interconnectedness between human and natural systems and appreciate the complexity and consequences of decisions made today and how they might affect tomorrow. As Dr. Potter noted, we need to re-imagine and choose our future. In order to do so, foresight is value, you ought to develop and you ought to know your personal foresight leadership style. Natalie Dionne is a futurist and developed a foresight style assessment based on an individual's time orientation, propensity for holistic and dual thinking, as well as a penchant for structure and activity. She identified and defined six foresight styles. Futurist, activist, opportunist, flexist, equilibrist, and reactionist. Here is a brief description of each style. As you reflect on the six styles, think about the data Dr. Potter presented on the Six Americas, the public response to global warming and climate change. Can you link a foresight leadership style with one or more of the citizen stances? Futures tend to think in terms of 5-20 years or more. They look for perspective and try to see the whole picture. They frame things through a systems thinking lens and aspire to create the best possible future. They render scenarios or future possibilities. Activists introduce new ideas and innovations into a system and commit themselves to a cause and create change in service of making things better. Activists are inspired by the vision of futurists. Opportunists tried to change the future by making sure the present is as good as possible. Short-term goals and third support opportunists advancement. Flexes are grounded in the present and open to new innovations that enhance survival. Equilibrists work in the present and see survival as a matter of balance and keep organizations running. The work to integrate new ideas into existing systems. Reactionists want to protect and sustain organizations and are wary of change and likely to support the status quo because the threat of the unknown is a survival threat. They can stop change in an instant and force people in an organization to consider the downside of new ideas. How do these styles relate to the Six Americas, Dr. Potter described in terms of public response to global warming and climate change? If you had to pick your current foresight leadership style, which one would it be? In the next part of this module, I share strategies, tools, and techniques one can learn to support the development of foresight.
